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Obama Might Just Win this Goddamn Election

obama4.jpgThere’s a ton of good news out there if you’re an Obama supporter. The national polls show Obama is up anywhere from 2 to 10 points, depending on which poll you look at. A poll of polls puts Obama up by 5 points. And, according to some guy I saw on Olbermann’s show last night, only one candidate in the last 40 years or so has recovered from a 5 point deficit this late in an election: Ronald Reagan, in 1980. Of course, McCain ain’t no Reagan, and Obama ain’t no Carter. The guy on Olbermann’s show also had Obama up 320 to 207 in the electoral college, which certainly seems like a very difficult obstacle to overcome for McCain, particularly since he keeps sticking his foot in his mouth and his running mate probably hasn’t even hit rock bottom yet.

Perhaps most encouraging are polls from the major battleground states. Quinnapac polls put Obama up 51-43 in Florida; 50 - 42 in Ohio; and 54-39 in racist Pennsylvania. No candidate has ever one the election without winning at least two of those states. What does that mean?

There’ll be at least two more Hail Mary passes by the McCain campaign before it’s over. That’s my uneducated guess. And one of those Hail Mary passes, I still maintain, will be replacing Palin on the ticket.

And speaking of Palin, she made a few more gaffes last night during her interview with Katie Couric that I’m sure most of you have already seen. Aside from the fact that she couldn’t name one publication that she reads (I mean, seriously? She couldn’t even offer up People? She’s been on the cover!), or the fact that she clearly had no idea what a morning-after pill was, or that she thought homosexuality was a choice, I think the thing that unnerved me the most was the “I have a gay friend” line. Really? She used that line? I thought only racists trying to disprove their racism used the “I have a _____ friend” line. That’s just pathetic. Just pathetic.

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Comments

The guy on Olbermann last night was Nate Silver, inventor of the PECOTA prediction system for baseball and operator of the website fivethirtyeight.com, which has, by far, the best analysis and predictions about this election (both pres. and senatorial) you can find.

Check it out!

Gee Thanks. I'm sure Pennsylvania is the only state in the union with racists in it. No dig on Florida even, just PA? Dude, when I lived in Florida everybody knew that there were certain restaurants and bars that black people weren't allowed in. You know, cuz segregation still pretty much exists in central FL. Ain't nothin' like that in PA. Where's the love?????

The real question is "Is stupidity a choice?" Was it nature or nurture, Sarah?

Dude looks way hot in that damn cowboy hat. That is NOT okay. Thou shalt not lust after thy Presidential candidate.

Not that it wouldn't make me happier than...a pig with lipstick?...but you're out of your damn mind if you think McCain is going to replace Palin on the ticket. She may be Quayling the hell of him, but she's also the only reason the social conservatives might, muhbe, possibly show up in November. And dropping her would be tantamount to saying "oh, right...ummm... turns out, I not only have the judgment of a moose turd, I also have the spine of one as well."

Nate over at 538 puts it more effectively than I:

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2008/09/mccain-is-stuck-with-palin.html

Should have read Eric's post first, I guess Nate's already been invoked...sorry Eric...but still worth reading his take on Palin-dropping.