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QuizLaw’s Amateur Election Punditry

21hillary.600.jpgWith one day until the New Hampshire primary, it looks like that Barack Obama has opened up a double-digit lead on Hillary Clinton, and with the prospect of getting manhandled in the next few primary states, things are looking decidedly grim for Hillary. In fact, the scuttleass over at The Drudge Report is speculating, based on his usual sources (the voices inside his head), that Hillary may even drop out.

But before those in the Barack camp (of which I am one) start celebrating their victory, Barackophiles might want to be careful what they wish for. Indeed, I think some — though certainly not all — of Barack’s appeal lies in his contrast to Clinton. He’s a great orator, an attractive candidate (some might say “hot”), and he’s got super-magical powers to uplift. And, when he’s figuratively standing next to Hillary, he seems like an easy alternative to an abrasive politician.

But, you take Hillary out of the equation, Barack would be standing next to Edwards. And, if the electorate is forced to take another hard look at Edwards, I honestly think that more than a few people may pick up on his appeal: he’s got a great message, one that is very similar to Obama’s, and he’s a bit more seasoned than Barack. In a head to head contest between Obama and Hillary, it looks like Obama would be a shoe-in, but if you put him next to Edwards, I think he’s gonna be in for a helluva contest, which may actually serve us all a little better.

And, I just pulled all that out of my own ass, but it sure sounded reasonable in my head.

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Comments

I think that you are right to a certain Extent, but by relying on the comparison appeal of Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton, you are ignoring the overwhelming appeal of what looks to be a movement in every sense of the word. I have done some reasonably well-informed work on the results of Iowa and (hopefully) some predictions for New Hampshire at my blog http://oneturnaway.blogspot.com.